Our methodology

1. Fair probabilities from the market

We start from the prices of the sharpest exchanges and bookmakers and remove the bookmaker margin. What is left is a fair probability for each result — the market's best estimate, updated through the day.

2. Research checks

Before anything is picked, the engine checks the evidence for each match:

• Recent form, home and away
• Goals scored and conceded
• Head-to-head meetings
• Team news — injuries and suspensions

3. Main tips

• Minimum price of 1.40.
• Same-day kick-offs only.
• We give no stake advice on main tips, and their record shows the result only.

4. Value tips

A value tip is posted only when the price on offer is above our fair price. Each one is measured at 1 unit flat, so profit and ROI are reported for value tips.

5. Grading and voids

Every pick is timestamped when posted, before kick-off, at the price available then. After the match it is graded won, lost or void. Voids (for example, a draw on a draw no bet pick) are excluded from the win rate. Nothing is deleted — see every pick on our results page.

What we never do

• No Unders markets.
• No stake advice on main tips.
• No placing bets for anyone, and no promise of profit.